ITRI predicts the the global tin price to be US$ 22.000 – 23.000 per metric tons until 2020. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) records national tin export fell 10.000 metric tons to 29.000 metric tons. What is the impact for Timah (Persero) tbk (TINS)?
A negative sentiment decreases the average target analysis for TINS to IDR 500 or has potential downside to 37.5%. Until the first semester 2016, TINS has loss IDR 32.9 billion.
ITRI projects the price is higher than expected, caused by the low supplies that were affected by the production problem around the world. Peter Kettle, the market manager of ITRI, saw the tin industry is looking for a new balance that is expected to be made by 2020 where the tin price will reach US$ 22.500.
While CFTC saw that the decline in Indonesian export was caused by the new source export, Myanmar. Myanmar has not been the world player due to the low qualities, while China and Peru also fell. Although Indonesia is still dominant in world tin sales, but Indonesia will run out of reserves in 10-15 years.
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